And then, slap bang in the middle of all this surging and sprinting, up pops that geeky killjoy Silver. “In polls, Romney’s momentum seems to have stopped,” he announced in a blog yesterday. Coolly and calmly, Silver set about dismantling the Romney bandwagon. According to his model's “Nowcast” – the chance of either candidate prevailing if the election was held on that particular day – the trend was slightly favourable to Obama:
When I saw the article up above, I laughed...............you see Nate is very cautious by nature and after the first debate, he began expressing some concern about Obama's chances. His Nowcast which had gotten as high as an 85% chance for Obama quickly dropped to the low 60s. About that time, I began making plans to move to Canada. <g>
So then for him to reverse himself by taking that stance on Romney's momentum which really is another example of his careful cautiousness, it means that Romney's momentum has come to a FULL STOP. Hit a brick wall. Stopped on a dime. Isn't going anywhere.
And that has made the right very unhappy.
Nate Silver is Mitt Romney’s nemesis. Not intentionally; although he admits to being an Obama supporter, his whole career is predicated on getting his predictions right. Like he did in 2008, when "Poblano" accurately predicted the result of 49 of the 50 states, and all 35 senate races.
And it is that reputation for accuracy that is so damaging to the Romney campaign’s attempt to sustain their precious “momentum” narrative. People listen to Silver. And over the past 48 hours, the narrative is starting to shift. “Mitt-mentum? Not so fast” – US News & World report. “Romney’s Momentum Seems To Have Stopped” – Political Wire. “The momentum myth” – Washington Post.
Well, the winger pundit machine is working over time pointing out that Nate is a slight man who comes across as effeminate. In other words, he's gay and is the devil's spawn. Truth is Nate is a small guy but does not seem effeminate to me. And whether he's gay or not is not worth the time to speculate. What I do know is that I admire his competency when it comes to stats and would like to get to know him. BTW he originally is from Chicago so I expect the right to tie him into the Obama mafia any time now. |
