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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Dennis 3 who wrote (49909)10/30/2012 11:01:45 PM
From: Spekulatius3 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 78744
 
>>We had QE1, qe2 with no significant inflation despite cnbc and its "expert" guests reporting it will be a problem. Now are in qe3 and the inflation scare is making its way on the news again<<

You can turn this argument around and ask yourself. - well QE1 and QE2 have not worked as expected, why should QE3 work? The problem with inflation is that it is not uniform. First of all, all the items that are "volatile" like energy, gasoline, food are taken out of the "core" inflation number to begin with. Amongst the remaining items, my observation is that some items show significant inflation (mostly those that one cannot do without) while others become cheaper over time. So the overal inflation average is not telling the whole story.

Somehwat related, I would argue that 8% unemployment is not the real problem itself. The real problem is that the 8% is just the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, the real unemployment, if you add those that have given up looking for a job (this adds to up the mid single digits and would be the number that you need to compare unemployment numbers in Europe with) and add to that the working poor (which probably is about equal to the number that don't pay any income tax, ~47% according to Romney). That is a pretty large percentage of the populace that has a problem and not just since the great recession.
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