Kent,
I checked the prices of each of the 35 stocks over the period of 95 to
97. Only 7 stocks, ETEC - IMSC - MICN - PHTN - PRIA - SFAM - WFR, had
higher prices in 96 than the peak closing prices attained in 95. All
of the 7 stocks, with the exception of PHTN, had a positive percent
change from 95 to 97. Three (3) of the 7 stocks, ETEC - SFAM - PRIA,
are the top three percentage gainers on the list from 95 to 97. I am
still trying to come up with some conclusion on this situation that
would be useful for future stock picking.
Of even greater interest to me is the number of stocks in the list,
16, that have never reached their 95 highs in the runup this past
summer. This is 16/35, or 46 percent of the total. That means there
is potentially a large number of buyers at high prices in 95 who are
still "underwater". Of course FSII happens to be one of these stocks.
Over 2 years is a long time to be underwater, and it may be a long
time yet (a year or more?) before those investors can get a little
"air".
Let's make one more assumption. As investors, we are usually told
that we should use the technique of buy and hold for the most part.
What would have happened if we had decided to invest in a particular
stock, near or at its high, in 1995 and held on to it since then.
Where would we be today? That can be answered by looking at the table
below:
1995 11/28/97
HIGHEST CLOSE PERCENT
SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE
ETEC Etec System 9.17 45.75 399
PRIA Pri Automation 22.38 34.13 53
SFAM Speed Family 18.25 25.63 40
VECO Veeco Instruments 29.13 39.88 37
MICN Micrion 16.00 21.81 36
PLAB Phototronics 40.47 47.75 18
ASYT Asyst Technologies 26.50 30.81 16
AMAT Applied Materials 29.56 33.00 12
IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 16.50 18.25 11
COHU Cohu 35.75 35.50 -1
BRKS Brooks Automation 24.00 21.25 -11
HELX Helix Technology 27.00 23.56 -13
NVLS Novellus Systems 43.19 37.63 -13
NANO Nanometrics 10.13 8.75 -14
KLAC KLA Instruments 46.91 38.75 -17
TER Teradyne 42.00 32.81 -22
CMOS Credence Systems 40.25 26.81 -33
KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 44.38 27.56 -38
WJ Watkins Johnson 56.25 31.25 -44
UTEK Ultratech Stepper 46.75 24.63 -47
TGAL Tegal 13.88 7.25 -48
GSNX Gasonics 26.83 13.25 -51
SVGI Silicon Valley Group 48.38 23.75 -51
EGLS Electroglas 39.75 19.00 -52
WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 38.25 18.06 -53
ASEC Aseco 21.88 10.00 -54
SMTL Semitool 36.00 15.50 -57
LRCX Lam Research 71.75 30.63 -57
FSII FSI International 37.75 15.19 -60
LTXX LTX 14.00 5.56 -60
IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 54.50 21.50 -61
PHTN Photon Dynamics 12.00 4.38 -64
MTSN Mattson Technology 31.13 9.88 -68
GGNS Genus 16.75 4.31 -74
SUBM Submicron Systems 14.00 3.03 -78
TOTALS 1101 827 -25
This is amazing! Out of the 35 stocks, only one, ETEC paid off
handsomely. Eight (8) more have positive results, but all the rest
are negative. The average of all stocks is down 25 percent!! FSII
is a good example. If you bought at the peak in 95 you're down
by 60 percent!!
Well, enough for tonight. It's kind of hard to fathom. Whoever said
you could "buy and hold" technology stocks and make a lot of money???
You really need to make sure you don't buy at the peak - it will take
on the average a lot of time to get your money back.
Don W. |
