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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Sam who wrote (207164)11/5/2012 4:19:36 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (1) of 541735
 
Rasmussen has a history of favoring Rs till election time, when he phases out the bias and falls in line with other polls so he can claim great accuracy after the election.

Gallup, I don't exactly understand. They usually have a D falloff when they switch from registered voters to likely voters about a month before the election, but their "likely voter" model aka turnout model doesn't come from scaling for fixed R/D ratio the way that the wingers have been demanding for this election season, and that Rasmussen seems to do until he wants accurate results. Rather, it comes from a bunch of ( a little indirect but definitely non-partisan ) questions about how likely the individual are to vote. I think their model likely hasn't worked very well this year, but I don't think they're playing Rasmussen's game either.

Here's a couple articles from Gallup on their method:

gallup.com
pollingmatters.gallup.com

Here's their "likely voter" party id results:
gallup.com

Here's their general party id results, I assume "registered voters"

gallup.com

I'll have to check back when they publish final numbers on this stuff. I don't know why their likely voter model swung so much more R this year The winger claim is that this is more like 2004 than 2008, but in 2004 election time D and R registered voters were pretty equal, this year, not so much.
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