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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Ron who wrote (207755)	11/7/2012 1:03:01 PM
From: neolib	Read Replies (1) of 540982

Interestingly enough, this makes his future job harder. He uses the past performance of individual polls to determine how those same polls should feed into his current model. If the polls that have been missing the most try to learn and get closer to the mean on the next election, he is going to need to try and figure out the impact of that on his own model. He is better off having a spectrum of polls that disagree and use somewhat different methods as his sources than he is having polls which agree, and use similar methods. What he does need from them is that they stay as consistent in their methods as possible over time. It might seem a bit counter intuitive, but having things out of focus so to speak in sources can allow sharper focus in results, something that is known mathematically for a long time, and is in fact used in some very sensitive and highly accurate equipment (things like optical star trackers and some machine vision systems). Nate is doing the same thing.

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