I think there's some new products lurking here, in the ADSL mux and transport functions, which I've been trying to understand. In the POTS/ISDN world, there are nice, well-understood ways to multiplex 64kbit channels into a T1, with signalling technology and products well established to split out and put together these DS0/DS1/DS3 streams.
In the ADSL world, there's no such standard (is there?). Two xDSL modems will be able to talk to each other, but how the data will be loaded onto fiber on the green box; what product will be on the other side? There seems to be a big product opportunity, besides selling the ADSL modems themselves, to build the muxes on both the SAC and CO side, and then in interfacing to a router (to go to the internet, or whatever).
From the investment perspective, it would be good to know how this will shake out:
* Will adsl modem vendors also make these muxes, and build them into racks to compete with usrx and asnd?
* Will existing access vendors, usrx, asnd, csco, cscc buy or build this technology and just put it as an interface card to their switches? It may be that their market clout and account control will win, and that service providers will be rather just add another ASND interface card than a whole other system from a new vendor.
* Will there be a standard such that access providers can mix and match equipment, or will a few proprietary approaches (and vendors) prevail?
I think there's lots of dollars at stake in how this shakes out, because it's tough to make money on single modems or via OEM (see what happened to microcom, telebit, penril and others). The money seems to be in the integrated access system. Just ask USR where their margins are. The same story may repeat itself in the xDSL market as in the analog modem market.
Has anybody announced products of this type?
Regards,
Rob |
