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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 671.910.0%Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (40672)11/20/2012 3:47:09 PM
From: Keith Feral  Read Replies (1) of 218856
 
I'm back to a full position in the banks today. Still keeping some powder dry to add to other positions, but the discounts between C and BAC relative to other money center banks like JPM and WFC is only going to shrink next year. Regardless of what happens, BAC and C will get the greenlight to start paying normal dividends again next year and start buying back stock. We'd have to start a whole new credit collapse for that to happen. It's not going to start between now and March, so they will finally catch up to the other banks in terms of return of capital. Both banks now have more than enough capital to get them through the last credit crunch without further capital raise. Theoretically, BAC has enough capital so that even if they didn't ever make a profit again, they wouldn't have to raise capital.

The worst thing that could happen would be they had to start setting aside more loan losses in a couple years. They still have enough reserves to get by another couple years worth of loan losses.

It really makes me wonder about the significance of HP's writeoffs the past few quarters. $16 billion down the tubes, but that should be about it. It's not like they are going to be making these kinds of writeoffs into the future.
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