The very recent price surge off its fairly long base of $2.70 to $2.80 on increasing volume, especially yesterday, was surprisingly strong, even for my highly optimistic trading model of a week ago, which didn't foresee the 6 month $3.39 high being tested until late January.
The gaps that interest me are the May 3-4/12 gap between $3.30 and $3.59 which is now clearly within sight.and the Apr 10-11/12 gap between $4.41 and $5.12 as once we get 3 closes at $3.40 or better, thus strongly confirming a new uptrend, there just isn't a whole lot of overhead resistance until $5.12, so a fairly rapid ascent to the $5.00 level should not be too surprising from a technical perspective.
Like you, I'd not be surprised to see a little sloshing around before $3.39 is successfully surmounted....but if reports surface in December that the Lumia 920T is a huge hit in China, I can't see it being a long wait until $5.00 is tested.
As mentioned earlier, my trading model assumed a rise from $2.65 to $5.00 by the end of April/13, which dictated purchase of Apr $3 calls for me.
Extrapolating on the very recent volume/price strength of NOK (which may not be prudent), my rather optimistic trading model of 2 weeks ago is looking much, much more conservative now inasmuch as the $5 overhead ceiling may be tested well before the end of April.
Once a new upward trend is confirmed with multiple closes above $3.39, technically, there just isn't much overhead supply until $5.00, so with any highly favourable Lumia 920T news out of China, a test of $5.00 might just occur much more quickly than many, including me, anticipated as little as 2 weeks ago. |
