Hello Haim, I am unsure where my camp is, but my expression of my camping view had been simple and continues to be straightforward.
I am high gold, that which is hard cash and portable mineralized real estate; I am high gold mine, that which is a bank situated on cheap real estate; and i am high Hong Kong real estate, that which is golden bank deposit that yields higher than conventional bank deposit rate.
The above three simple expressions of my straightforward view share some commonalities, namely
(i) they benefit from continuing global fiat credit money quantitative easing
(ii) they particularly get rewarded by USA money dilution
(iii) they front run the mainland Chinese whether energized by success of on-going systemic reform or wobbled by inevitable hiccups, and
(iv) they have been multi-years winning wagers, and may well turn into multi-decade successful bets.
Going forward I believe we must count on:
(i) France blowing up
(ii) Japan imploding
(iii) politicians trying to forestall super debt cycle deflation by sacrificing the mostly idiotic and formerly 'middle class' just about everywhere, tallying-in especially those who benefited not from their own diligence but for the most part owe their status to a relatively short accident in history and rode the industrialization wave up and cresting on a tech froth, and
(iv) the perfect storm continues to converge towards the center from the periphery
In other words, more of the same, inflation of the east and all that we need, and deflation of the west and all that we have, with an uneven sharing of pain that on average may be painless, better for folks in physical this and solid that, whether in boxes or w/ zip codes, and worse for people w/ paper, be they bonds or stocks or bank deposits.
Geographically speaking, generally better w/i domains of high savings and fiscal green, and certainly worse w/i territories of high entitlement and fiscal red. Iow, where one has one's physicals and solids may prove material.
In the mean time, yes, currency rates fluctuates and flash craterings happen, occasionally a debt-ly sink hole and a meteorite shower, and a fiscal cliff here, a monetary gorge there. No surprises.
The advantage of Europe is that there is a lot of weath to confiscate and plenty of savings to dilute. So the show shall continue until no can do and revert back to their idyllic ways.
The advantage of the USA is that it is the dominant military industrial carbon energy central banking reserve currency power, and must maintain such until the bitter end, long past the point when the Europeans give up the ghost of euro zone. The disadvantage would be that the bitter end may prove particularly bitter for its mostly unaware coke-n-pepsi electorates who have no appropriate basis to ever become aware.
The advantage of Japan is that it shall be the first to get it all over with, and leave the troubles behind.
The rest of the domains? All collapsed already, just bottom scraping, and doing what they must, how they must, w/o the luxury of advantages.
Hong Kong? Small, resource-free, crowded, noisy, can only watch from the side lines, not making any difference one or another way, and can only focus on what is important, reading the situation and trying to make do with tapping the flow.
Canada? Winter. Avoid.
Australia? Big rock. Dig.
Cheers, tj |
