Hi oilgeezer,
I hope you're right! I'm probably like a lot of people; we all know the basic rules of TA, but we don't all follow it. If we did TA wouldn't be what it is today. I mean can you imagine every time if violated a rule, and 'everybody' reacted according to the text book?! As well, there's a TINY dangerous part of me that says we know everyone is following TA, there's something un-contrarian about that. :)
I'm not concerned about this price level and my thinking is that be it .28 or .35 or whatever, that this has the potential to be a x banger. I still say that when the news came out about the financing it should have gone up, not down - unless we assume the financing was priced in??! At .40 and a $60m cap the financing was built in, OK, the market has spoken. :)
Coming out of the crash in late 08, my two largest positions and subsequent best % gains by far were FVI and RIO. The "problem" with the FVI and RIO was the inability to hold, such that when it hit their stride (so far), they were still my largest positions but I held much fewer shares. (Today I'm all out of FVI at $6 flat).
I HOPE that there's a little bit of FVI and RIO in GPD. I own much more GPD than FVI or RIO. At this price GPD won't have to come close to FVI and RIO's multiple gains for me to be a happy camper. In other words, yes I have a SMALL amount of traders but most of my shares are destined for being held and sold in years, not days, not weeks and not 'year'. I don't mean to 'associate' those two prior good performers to GPD. Only in the sense of strategy, very different situations other than all being in the jr PM sector. I mean those other two are in Peru and Mexico, GPD in Nevada and Yukon, GPD does not produce silver, gold may have peaked per the dreadful sentiment today, etc. etc.
That's the plan, there's the little factor of the POG and not only GPD, but also Barrick and Midway must execute too!!! I personally feel that they will need more money - and MA feels that they will need $5 to $10m more. In the scheme of things that is peanuts. I will be very, very disappointed if that isn't raised closer to a dollar than .50; or even .75 cents. That money won't be until the $35m is fully allocated. How many companies can get into production, by the way with an expenditure of $35m or even $45m? Like how many fingers on one hand kind of territory.
One of the risk factors is the result of the PFS / FS ? due q1/13. This is the thing: 99% of the microcaps / jr exploration companies will be living and dying by those nos. for that particular deposit. Our's can come out 'OK' and we're going ahead. And OK is a relative thing. What is good, what is bad, what is OK? There's no line between the 3 descriptions and a couple of guys decide to buy or to sell, the stock goes up or it goes down and that draws the conclusion. Bull sh*t.
I just look at the company and the many things its got going for it and COMPARE it to the others and for me it's a no brainer. Tell you what, on a YTD basis my pf is down 2%; and if I were good I'd be up 10%+. But I salvaged the 2% and I'm happy because I keep an eye out for relative values. When I sold out of many of the stocks that tanked - before the big tanking - like AVR, GMA, CAN, VTR, SSP etc. - I moved it to higher quality holdings like ANV and Globex GMX.
I've sold all my Globex due to the difficulty of raising capital, but good ol' Jack Stochs and this co. did it's job. I might have lost 10% on it tops whereas the others went down as much as 50%. I continue to keep it on my watch list and if Eco Refractory gets some traction, I'll be back in so fast.... from Missouri on the talc project now. (One of the reasons I bot GMX was for Chibougamau spinout - that has been announced and subj to reg approval each GMX shareholder gets one share of Chibougee)
In a somewhat similar way I view GPD as an excellent value w/ such limited downside, and great risk/ reward. Seems marcos and me are on the same page and he's a good partner to have.
Hey, could be wrong, the company still needs to execute too! So do the royalty partners in Barrick and Midway to go into production to the benefit of GPD. Those aren't controllable factors and let me guess that's discounted too. In the presentation the NPV of the PAN alone is over $30m (so on this day you get the rest for $12m???) , can't wait to see what that will be in 2013, 2014. The royalty page is under construction and no doubt will contain much more information than before. What looks to be a clumsy mistake, why isn't the Midway royalties included on page 12? Good luck 'geezer and glad you are on board!
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