Robert, there is no TA in my number. Just a memory of TXN in
Nov,95? the PE was around 6-8 (down from $80+ to $40+). Tom Kurlak
of ML gave a estimate of TI's earning from $2 to $2.5. I picked the
high numbers ie: $2.5 * 8 ---> $20. This only represent 'distressed
sale' when one (or fund manager) gives up hope and forget it for
awhile.
The tech (except a few, like MSFT,DELL,CSCO) in general is in a
ditch, ie 30-40% off the high.
High tech growth also depend on the companies themselve (like TI,
INTEL..) to push for higher performance and create a desire that one
must have this, one must have that.
Especially INTEL may be a victim of its own success. A very
uncomfortable scenario for INTEL is that we may just have good
enough 'power' for awhile, especially for consumer, those who
surf, word-processing. Why P-II ...? Those $1000-$1500 are wonderful
machines 6 months ago.
I read Motley Fool (Yahoo) about how most industry keeps expanding
capacity (like automobile, memory!!) even knowingly the price is
in general downtrend. Nobody seems to find equibrillium point and
just try to stay alive and go after each others throat.
Anyway, I wish TXN won't go to that low. Between now and year-end,
anything can happen. I think mid $30 is most probable. The problem
is, there is no good/promising news for those analyst to play for
awhile (3-6months). |
