This one maybe a bit more interesting:
redacre.com
It better addresses what I think are the more relevant issues...
The timeline isn't news...
The longer term issues related to determining a proper value for the Acthar franchise aren't about IS...
There's a bigger real concern for investors related to the long term ROI expected to be generated by dollars being wisely reinvested, or not... and, thus far, QCOR hasn't met investors expectations in generating a more diversified pipeline... However, they've more than compensated for that sustained failure by getting a couple of new tricks out of the pony they have... which have leveraged its potential remarkably well.
And, then, there's an unstated issue or two related to the elements in "what got us here"...
From the positive perspective, QCOR initially revalued Acthar as dramatically as they have as a result of what appeared to be a bit of deliberate strategic thinking...
From the negative view of that same event, there's precious little evidence that initial bit of right thinking is being properly recognized for what it was, or what it means in wider context, and much less is there evidence of that bit of strategic thinking being duplicated...
It's likely that risk of duplication that is the greater motivation for the persistent effort made by the shorts. I doubt "the industry" really cares about Acthar... it's clear enough that the "resistance" doesn't care about truth... or patients, etc., etc.... but, QCOR management appear to have grown fat and lazy, content enough to continue milking the cow they have as long as they can without growing a herd... and that's disappointing.
Without evidence they're continuing on course with a strategic plan that will enable extending their first strategic success by leveraging it into additional strategic successes... ? QCOR was over-priced at $50 and above...
Without evidence they face meaningful competition... QCOR is significantly underpriced at $20 or below...
I'd like to be more optimistic... but, reality is that I don't see a reason now for QCOR to do more than trade in a range between $35 and $45... although the market reality with the fact of faux "liquidity" is likely to mean that QCOR will sustain greater volatility than that...
They were a bit slow in the effort to institute the divvie... but, that should provide a bit more stability over time as it is sustained, and as they demonstrate growth in income that exceeds the commitment in the payout...
Otherwise, the shorts got this dramatically wrong... they were wrong with the argument they presented when they posted it at and below $4... and the same argument now isn't more right now... in any aspect other than in $50 being a bit over-priced for the fact in the performance that QCOR has posted... The price got ahead of them a bit, after more than a 10X over two and half years...
The QCOR story remains fully intact... including the component in the fact that we've not yet seen any proofs that QCOR management will ever prove capable of duplicating their Acthar success... with a second product. |
