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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room
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To: Oblivious who wrote (174529)12/12/2012 12:28:07 PM
From: Dennis Roth3 Recommendations  Read Replies (8) of 206161
 
LNG-fuelled deep sea shipping
The outlook for LNG bunker and LNG-fuelled newbuild demand up to 2025
August 2012, 56 pages
lr.org

The three forecast scenarios for LNG-fuelled newbuild and LNG bunker demand are:

Base case scenario – current ECAs and a 0.5% global sulphur limit in bunker fuel implemented from
2020:
– 653 LNG-fuelled newbuilds forecasted for the period up to 2025 (4.2% of global deliveries from
2012 to 2025)
– LNG bunker demand is expected to reach 24 million tonnes (MnT) by 2025 for deep sea trades
(1.5% of global LNG production and 3.2% of global HFO bunker consumption).

High case scenario – a 25% decrease on the forecast LNG bunker prices used in the base case model
and a 75% increase in propensity for newbuilds to convert to LNG-fuelled designs from 2020-2025:
– 1,963 LNG-fuelled newbuilds forecasted for the period up to 2025 (12.6% of global deliveries from
2012 to 2025)
– LNG bunker demand is expected to reach 66 MnT by 2025 for deep sea trades (4.2% of global LNG
production and 8.0% of global HFO bunker consumption).

Low case scenario – a 25% increase in forecast LNG bunker prices used in the base case model
and implementation of global sulphur limits shifting to 2023. Sensitivity testing indicates that shifting
implementation to 2025 for the low case would generate a zero demand for LNG-fuelled newbuilds:
– 13 LNG-fuelled newbuilds forecasted for the period up to 2025 (0.1% of global deliveries from
2012 to 2025)
– LNG bunker demand is expected to reach 0.7 MnT by 2025 for deep sea trades (0.001% of global
LNG production and 0.002% of global HFO bunker consumption).

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