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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions?
MRVC 9.975-0.1%Aug 15 5:00 PM EST
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To: cmg who wrote (6177)12/2/1997 9:14:00 PM
From: WBendus  Read Replies (1) of 42804
 
cmg,

The signs are all there. The only company that seems to be above it all is CSCO. The talk is good around BAY but the stock just does not seem to have much life in it. Unfortunately for me, I bought Bay at 29 just a week or so ago. I contemplated selling calls Friday and Monday but figured the stock was posing for a take off. Now, I am thinking of hedging my bets tommorrow. Sell some January 30 calls and buy the December 30 or 27 puts with the proceeds.

Lots of bad news in the tech sector, WDC, QNTM, TXN, CS, COMS, ASND, and moving to other segments. Large companies as well as small are being affected. The problems have been around for about five months now but there may still be another 4 to 6 months to sort through before we get past it. The technology boom last year and before fueld a lot of capital spending by technology firms. All that spending has generated some excess capacity. Personally, I think that there might be an indirect link to the currency turmoil and recent stock market jolts.

I think that much of the downside has been priced in at this point but a recovery might be 4 to 6 months out. Perhaps an early summer rally. I think the best bet is to stay in and hedge. Look for the large caps to make a tripple top in January and for there to be a blood bath in February and March. Christmas is seeming a little weak so far this year, at least in Upstate (Southern Tier and Central) NY.

Wayde.
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