Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Timelord who wrote (4283)	12/2/1997 9:26:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (6) of 95453

Thread, we are at a crossroad again, eagerly awaiting the outcome of tomorrow's action. Let's see if we can put a few things into perspective and give points for each. Then we will add them up and make a risk/reward assessment. Disclaimer: this is strictly for short term play. 1. Stochastics at the bottom and we do have a sustainable bounce today (+2). 2. Stochastics needs at least one more day of 4-5% gain to show discrete separation of the %K and %D lines. We are only half way there optimistically (-1). 3. For most drillers they close above the bottom of the Bollinger bands (+1). 4. Unfortunately, we were there 2 weeks ago and we kept getting lower lows - got tricked then and may get tricked again (-1). 5. Convincing white candles across the board for the first time in many days (+2). 6. Two white candles is better than one (-1). 7. Intraday shows heavy volume in first hour contributed strongly to the upward pressure early on. Volume were smaller for profit takings midday on. However, very strong closing 10 minutes across the board (+2). 8. In January we had a continual slide from the top that lasted 7 weeks. We have a continued slide anywhere between 6 and 8 weeks now from the recent top. Percentage wise we have corrected slightly more. A few stocks corrected 50% and more like PTEN and UTI. So there is a historical benchmark that we can reference to which says we are near the FIRST bottom (+1). 9. Weekly charts show we have a way to go to form a good looking bottom. So we are susceptible to profit taking again and a good bottom will take another 3-4 weeks to round out (-1). 10. The money that is going to push the drillers back up is going to come from the same money that exited early in the current downturn. The number #1 reason is money managers taking fat profits to lock in their bonus rate. Dec 31 is the deadline so we should not expect a rocket shooting up the moon in a week or two (-1). 11. Look like techs are going to cry hard in the next few weeks. The drillers may benefit from the edgy money that want to be in the market (+1). 12. Oil prices are near the bottom of the trading range and the risk is there that it may break down below support (-1). 13. Saddam situation is not helping (-1). 14. No drillers are announcing quarterly earning right now. The closest one is PDS on Dec 15 (-1). [James Patterson is our reporter on the conference call. They expect to beat the street and more. But what count is their reassurance on continued improvement in dayrate and no slowdown.] 15. No companies making public positive announcement such as increase in buy-back or new buy-back programs to take advantage of current price weakness. No big oils coming out and say positive things like they are not cutting budget and expect continued strong demand (-1). 16. Analysts are not whole-hearted in pounding the table. A few bangs here and there do not make it loud and clear like Cramer (-1). Enough thoughts for now... So I have 9 pluses and 10 minuses (no pre-planning here). That is my assessment as of the close today. If we get a solid day up tomorrow, the ratio will be tilted towards more positive. But if we get a bad day tomorrow, the reverse is true. We are truly at a crossroad short term.

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