Mike, I've studied and used the CANSLIM approach and it often
works. I forget what it says about prices that reflect 2-3 years
earnings into the future (esp. when not guaranteed because a
product hasn't even shipped yet). Maybe you can refresh my memory.
I'd like to address a couple of points on your previous postings and
associated press releases:
First, it isn't particularly impressive when a company states that it
has a huge knowledge-base and then says it licensed it. That means
anyone else can easily do the same.
Second, Phoenix is very carefull about not talking too much about
deals it is working on or has completed. They have respect for
the many non-disclosure agreements they have, and they are
careful about not trying to mislead the investment community, I
think for more than just legal reasons.
I asked the CFO at PTEC a couple days ago if he knew why the
volume had gone down so much in the past several weeks. He said
they haven't been talking to analysts lately (in other words trying to
pump up the stock price like others we know well). He said they've
been too busy working on business (the old fashioned way of making
money?). They do have a guy that is in charge of producing press
releases and he has been putting those out often lately, but it looks
like not too many major investors are seeing them. I think we're at
the point that people are ignoring PTEC, because they see SYSF
price so much higher (4-5 times pre-split price on lower earnings) that
they figure there must be something wrong with PTEC. Unfortunately,
we'll probably have to wait a couple more quarters for all of this to
start straightening itself out.
Third, since both companies claim to be in the same businesses, I
think you need to compare them. As of last week, you now even
need to compare "call avoidance" offerings/strategies.
Here's what the top man at one of the most prestigous help desk
associations said about the Phoenix/Cybermedia team:
"The teaming of Phoenix and Cybermedia provides a synergy that
promises to transform the concept of self-healing PCs into reality.
Both companies have demonstrated an ability to create technology
to make PCs easier to use and support, and their credibility as
industry leaders positions them to integrate with other key players
to enable robust end-to-end support solutions."
Phoenix had already been working on "call avoidance" software
with Intel when SYSF made their announcements, but Phoenix
doesn't like the term "call avoidance" because it sounds like you're
trying to avoid your customers. You'll see some of these products
come out soon. Look back at the major technology agreement
PTEC and INTC did in February and the "help desk" products that
Intel has announced and put 2 and 2 together.
I really don't care anymore if SYSF goes to 1000. I could buy them
but I don't like them, regardless of my position in PTEC. Everyone
is different. I'm sure both will do well in business. |
