Would be nice to see some real volatility again.
The markets were awesome for trading from mid 2007 until mid 2009. Since then, it's been 2 1/2 years of pretty boring trading, with the exception of some Flash Crash excitement (in May 2010) and debt ceiling excitement in Aug 2011.
I don't think we'll see any real volatility originating out of the U.S. this year. However, the European situation could be poised to generate some sharp volatility as the year progresses. Unfortunately, European created volatility tends to cause our markets to gap sharply at the open, and then snooze for much of the day (not exactly the best sort of volatility for effective trading).
In any case, best of luck to everyone in 2012!
=> Well, I must admit it was a disappointing trading year. While I didn't expect a good, volatile trading environment, I had hoped to be happily surprised. While I managed to finish the year with only one down month, 2012 is closing as the worst trading year for me in a decade. I think the combination of lower volatility and the increasing domination by the HFT firms has made this the most difficult trading environment I can recall. On the positive side, my golf game continues to improve with the dull market and my reduced trading income will still not generate sympathy from those that 'work for a living'.
Looking ahead to 2013, we certainly have an increased potential for volatility with the looming fiscal cliff resolution and next iteration of the debt ceiling limit being reached. Note that the last real volatility for the U.S. stock markets were from August 2011, when the last debt ceiling limit was reached. While I'm hopeful for increased volatility and trading opportunities, we still face a market will little interest from the public and increasing growth in ultra competitive high frequency firms. I will predict that 2013 will be a better year for trading than 2012, but nothing even close to resembling the awesome trading markets of 2007-2009.
I hope readers of this (virtually inactive) thread had a great year in 2012, and I wish you the best of luck in the year ahead.
-EricP |
