great article. some key points:
1. Letting optimism triumph over experience, the companies building
those 64-meg DRAM plants in the U.S. all think they are going to get
to market soon enough to enjoy a brief period of decent prices.
Observes Mitch Tyson, president of PRI Automation, a
Massachusetts maker of fab-plant equipment: "You miss that early
market window when prices are high, you've lost a chance to recoup
your investment quickly."
**OPTIMISM VS EXPERIENCE. HMMMM...**
2. As early as 1999, industry observers say, falling prices will force the
chipmakers to bring out a 128-meg DRAM or, more likely, a
256-megabit model, which can be produced in the same fabs now
ramping up 64-meg production. Not long thereafter the industry will
probably need to roll out a 1-gigabit memory chip.
**WHAT ABOUT THOSE WITH NO MONEY**
3. So it goes. Carl Johnson of Infrastructure sees no escape for the
DRAM makers from what he calls a "big no-limit poker game." To
stay in the business, he says, "you have to invest in leading-edge
manufacturing capabilities to attain sufficient capacity. The
acceleration of 64-megabit capacity is part of a normal transition to
higher-density parts. If you're sitting at the poker table, you have to
play the hand. Like any other transition in memory chips, 64-megabit
will be profitable for a while, and then another hand will be dealt."
**NO LIMIT POKER GAME. HMMMM. HE WHO HAS THE MOST CAPITAL WINS? ME THINKS SO**
we'll have to see how long investors play chicken with reality.
mu, tanks for da memories... |
