Gary, do you have any thoughts about Nortel? In other words,
if Nortel were to think of acquiring a data networker, which
one of the seven dwarfs would it pick? (Ascend, Bay,
Coms, Cabletron, Madge, Fore, Xylan)
Also, I haven't done the math, but someone pointed out to me
that if you add the market cap of the 7 dwarfs it would still
be less than Cisco, who is obviously Snow White in this fairytale.
Anyway, back to the Ascend buyout theory. Wouldn't Nortel
make more sense since they are not under the pooling of interest
restriction that Lucent is under. Or would Nortel go for
the enterprise and hit up on Bay or Cabletron?
As for Compaq, I don't see them straying into the central office
(Cascade part of Ascend). I see them staying closer to the
enterprise, which they understand. Therefore at today's prices,
wouldn't Cabletron (with Spectrum Enterprise/Network
Management) seem more attractive than Ascend?
Where does Newbridge fit into this equation, if any? They've
made an acquisition UB Networks that hasn't been all that rosy.
Looking at the networkers right now reminds me of what
has been happening in the defense industry the last 10 years
in terms of consolidation. There may not be enough interoperability
to support dozens of companies. If customers are buying end-to-end,
then there only needs to be two or three major players.
Would appreciate your thoughts,
Clare |
