INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
AMSC (was called American Superconductor)
AMSC (market cap $0.143B)
AMSC's story sounds the same but it seems to be playing out under different labels and in ways that aren't as profitable as I expected. AMSC has two major businesses: wind power and power grid enhancements. I bought them because of they were advancing superconducting technology into commercial applications like cables, motors, regulators, and who knew what else. An aging infrastructure, the need for higher density power systems, more efficient motors, more efficient networks, and more reliable networks are an appealing argument for large profitable markets. Along the way they had phenomenal success in a different market with a wind power acquisition that subsequently blew away in an intellectual property theft. The superconductors continue to be advanced, but are only an element of the various parts of the power grid division. The world seems to waiting for the news about the wind power division. I'm waiting for better news from their core and original superconducting technology.
The replacement of key management may explain the rebranding of the goods and services. New people may want to be identified by new labels instead of the old, tarnished ones. As a power source, wind power grew by 27% in 2012. Wind power, other alternative electricity producers, and conventional electricity producers all feed a power grid that is in need of replacement, upgrades, increased efficiency, and interconnectivity. AMSC provides solutions to all of those needs. I'm particularly intrigued with the Tres Amigas interconnection project, even if I wasn't an AMSC shareholder.
As with all of my small cap stocks, I've lost confidence in their ability to recover, but that is based on emotion as much as any analysis. The technology is valid. The market exists. The need is increasing. The manufacturing processes are established. That's a good place for a business. Maybe it will be good enough for AMSC.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 2003 but the first shares were sold years ago. I bought more after the main drop, and have been surprised that the knife continued to fall. Unfortunately, I may have to sell if I can't find a job or sell my house.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com) |
