We could use this thread to discuss 2013 mining expeditions, sort of out of context of the 2013 contest?
Jason Napodano, Zacks, also tried to pick a portfolio for 2012.....
seekingalpha.com
He picked DEPO, POZN, AMRN (eyeballing, all up ~15% on the year), NBIX (down ~15%), ALXA, ZLCS, TSRX, CMXI, ASTM, TSPT (all down ~30-45%), NLTX (disaster) and ACAD (up 3X). Only one decent winner, but kudos to Jason for the effort.
Anybody willing to step up and argue FOR any of his eight 2012 losers, 2013-perspective? TIA.
My 2013 contest portfolio is in. Nothing out of the ordinary, apart from onty. Rationale? Hardly any.
:-(
With recent failure of a muc1-specific vaccine, they have phase II trials maturing for a pan-pi3k inhibitor, px-866. Alone, pi3k inhibitors have not been spectacular... I wouldn't expect knock-socks-off results. However, there are strong preclinical indicators EVERYWHERE that combo trials should be of interest. Novartis has a pronounced effort, one example. Their effort includes isoform-specific and pan-acting molecules. "Pan-acting" may, of course, represent "pan-toxic".
So, what have I done with real world money? Took a small position (about 4X the last share stake that I mentioned, but still a small stake). My plan is to diligently watch for the phase II results and to put them in context as best I can. Then I'll either sell the small stake that I have or buy hand over fist. Why? Lots of cash, clean balance sheet, research premium of ~35m covers the pi3k inhibitor, a good adjuvant (the project is in my sweet spot, but adjuvants are also a good place to leave money if you love graveyards), and a bcl-2 inhibitor that is in preclinical.
The primo stuff may come from the phase I portion of this phase I/II trial, erbitux plus px-866 in head/neck, and early results could trickle out within a year.......
clinicaltrials.gov
I know next to nothing about the bcl-2 inhibitor in preclinical testing, but I am also quite surprised to see that preclinical results have never cooled off for this target. |
