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Politics : View from the Center and Left

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To: Maurice Winn who wrote (213445)1/1/2013 8:35:49 PM
From: Wharf Rat  Read Replies (1) of 541403
 
The thesis that Hansen has put forward for several years is that Ice Sheet collapse is a non-linear process: that with the inclusion of amplifying climate feedbacks it is likely to follow an exponential rate of acceleration - a doubling rate. It might be a 10 year doubling time, or less. This will lead to extensive sea level rise, perhaps in the order of 5 metres this century....

According to the most recent data Greenland mass loss has been accelerating faster and faster over the last decade. The current rate of mass loss with amplifying feedbacks could fit either a linear or an exponential curve at the moment. Hansen and Sato calculate the doubling response:

"A 10-year doubling time would lead to 1 meter sea level rise by 2067 and 5 meters by 2090. The dates are 2045 and 2057 for 5-year doubling time and 2055 and 2071 for a 7-year doubling time."


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