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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Wharf Rat who wrote (213448)1/2/2013 2:02:09 AM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 541405
 
25 years ago, my theory on climate change was a non-linear one. So Hansen has caught up with me: <The thesis that Hansen has put forward for several years is that Ice Sheet collapse is a non-linear process: that with the inclusion of amplifying climate feedbacks it is likely to follow an exponential rate of acceleration >

The main reason it's non linear is that when snow melts, there is a lot more light absorbed than before it melted, because the dark surface exposed absorbs more light than snow does. So the energy absorbed continually increases with the extra energy melting ice at a greater rate, which feedback loops itself into a rapid process. It's the same in reverse. Once snow cover gains ground and clouds form at lower latitudes, reflection increases non-linearly with cooling rapidly gaining ground [literally]. But there are other non-linearity prospects too such as methane expulsion with heat.

The $64 trillion question is whether we are going to continue to warm following the end of the Little Ice Age or flip over the tipping point back to cold or colder. My 2020 foresight is that 2020 will see cold heading for colder. My hope is that CO2 accumulation prevents that catastrophic calamity.

Mqurice
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