It will definitely be more and more of a tug of war between the market cap the P/E in the future.
It's an interesting point in time for Apple. They reinvented the music industry, and still own a huge market share. They reinvented smartphones, and kicked off a huge secular demand in the category, to their benefit and others benefit. (I think) they reinvented the PC with the tablet, and that has a long way to run, albeit at lower margins. But so far they seem to be following the iPod model in share.
Next? TV and watches, as you say (I discount the watch thing and don't think there is a lot of money in it anyway). TVs have the same profile as their past winners, a yawn category turned suddenly exciting. Without the taste, drive and sheer will of Steve Jobs can Apple remake another industry? (IMO they seem to be falling a bit behind in their current categories, and I think they know it and are trying to address it).
Right now, this year, I thinks it's the post-Jobs Apple, sink or swim. Cook has done his thing; changed personnel, become more socially conscious, treated employees better, raised R&D a lot, instituted buy backs and dividends. Effective?
I think it's a coin flip. But this year Cook will be a hero or a goat. Apple is his company now. |
