Agreed that RIMM has more control over services. However, to get (a lot of) money from them, they have to sell a lot of phones. And it's not clear to me that people will buy a lot of RIMM phones when their app ecosystem is non-existent. Also though BB10 pre-reviews are positive, it's not clear there's enough differentiation for people to buy BB10 phones. Yes, RIMM bulls think that security and QNX is enough for it to be a strong contender for 4th ecosystem (behind Android, iFruit, Win Phone), but I think this is unproven and a guess-belief at best.
It's possible that people would buy BB10 phones as half-smartphones (i.e just for basic functionality and not apps), but this segment is tough to compete in when you have Chinese Android cheap phones, NOK Asha and even discounted Lumias.
Prem Watsa is respected and I hold Fairfax shares. His performance in last couple years has been pretty bad though. I am not sure he is a good tech investor.
You are right though that long term NOK future is unclear. It may become WinPhone's Samsung at best, but it could become a no-name low margin phone producer at worst. I would not hold NOK long term, but I think it can make recovery in 1-2 years that would value it higher than now. |
