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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash
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To: Stingray who wrote (1723)12/3/1997 11:22:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (3) of 5676
 
Hi Stingray,

I've been revewing mine and others' posts from July and Aug.
It looks to me I could have saved a lot of $ if I'd only listen to my own advice.
See replies #2262 #2265
#2472 #2479 #2481 #2517 #2550 #2552 #2554
#3528 #3532 #3562 #3606 #3872 on the Kahuna thread
and replies #125 and #129 on this thread.

Since July I've been saying the confirmation will be SPX breaking 900. It held until the mini crash in October, and the SPX touched its 200 dma at 850.
It took an outside interference for the SPX to close below 900 and the next day's close was over 900 again.
The strong rebound from that point was indicative of the market's strength
and the final straw was when 5 EMA crossed 21 EMA on the SPX upwards, around 940.

This finaly turned me bullish, and I even bot some OEX calls (!)
which I closed when the dow approached 8050.

It looks as though scenario b - The Millennium Crash - is materializing before our eyes.
The strong resistance at Dow 8050 and SPX 982 is still holding, but now it looks like it won't hold much longer, maybe a week.
After breaking thru this one, it's clear to the stratosphere.
So far, the market is not intimidated at all by it's approach to the high (SPX) and strong resistance (Dow).
I'll need to see the SPX 5 EMA below its 21 EMA to be bearish again.
Rarebird, Nosty and myself are now saying essencially the same thing: new highs and a crash next year - lets say between end Jan and early April- a greater crash then '29.

ATG
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