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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom?

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (572)12/3/1997 11:29:00 AM
From: Q.  Read Replies (2) of 2313
 
Some thoughts on the comparative valuation of ASYT and PRIA, which are both
leaders in their respective areas of automation:

For over a year, ASYT stock price badly lagged PRIA, so I sold my PRIA
and bought ASYT. But now, PRIA has fallen 28% in the last month, vs.
14% for ASYT, and that comes after a summer when ASYT was far stronger
than PRIA.

The result is that the 2-year relative performance of the two stocks
is now exactly the same. You would have the same dollar value now if
you had invested in either stock two years ago. So there's reason to
ask whether PRIA is still overvalued compared to ASYT. As the table
below shows, I don't think there is any reason to favor one over the
other now.

What I'm thinking is that it might be worthwhile to sell any ASYT
stock now held at a paper loss, recognize the tax loss, and buy PRIA
instead. I don't think this swap would be worth selling any ASYT stock
at a taxable profit, though.

Here are multiples, based on both stocks trading today at 30:

annual rev. growth rate
PSR (TTM) p/e (TTM) 3 yr 1 yr
PRIA 2.8 27.7 79% 73%
ASYT 2.3 28.5 83% 41%

Any opinions?
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