Even if Android has double the market share, say, an App developer still has to deal with multiple flavors of Android. Any other add on manufacturers (cases, covers, etc.) also have to develop various size and shapes. So, even if "Android" is double the market share, Apple will get priority treatment.
Double? I dont think that you understand the extent of the problem in developing countries.
You can download the latest KantorWorldTech numbers here. Now I dont necessarily believe that these numbers are rock solid, but I would guess that they are at least in the ballpark.
kantarworldpanel.com
Using Brazil as the example, Apple had a 1.6% market share in the 3 months ending in November versus 60.7% for Android. I am more than willing to believe that this number is low, but even if Apple has a 5% share, Android is likely to end up with the bulk of the rest of the market. Android is likely to have an installed base 10x the iPhone and the number could actually be much larger since I am giving a big boost to Apple's market share. The iPad and iPod Touch will help, but developing market consumers are the most likely to only have a single device for their needs.
and the problem is likely only going to get worse. The middle and low-end smartphone markets are growing much faster around the world than the high-end.
So while all of the issues you list matter, I have a hard time believing that they are going to be enough to keep developers from going after the installed base that represents the vast majority of their domestic audience. Like I said, eventually app selection could become a minus for the iPhone in these countries. That would be a terrible turn of events and might even put their current share at risk.
Apple is never going to get the type of share in these countries that they do in the US. However, I do think that developing a strategy to insure a >10-15% share is important.
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