OT - AAPL
Agree, 448 is a 75% retrace of the run up from the June '11 lows to the 702 top.
However, the risk reward balance is now in favor of buying here, with only 40 points to the downside. I have $648 as the current upside target of 75% retrace of the drop from 702 to 485.
The analyst who cut AAPL today (and their firm Nomura) is simply playing the options game for his clients, in my opinion!! If AAPL blows away earnings next week, which is my expectation, few will remember this call unless you sold out based on this drop.
I have noticed that a few in the media are misrepresenting AAPL's situation, calling them lower sales but, in reality, what's been reported is lower orders to their supply chain. From what I experienced at an AAPL store and my folks had a similar situation, AAPL's demand has been massive during the Xmas buying season.
I read an article yesterday that recommended buying AAPL at the end of the day this Friday, to let all the big money options games play out and then buy in anticipation of the earnings report a week from tomorrow. *EDIT it's a week from today
Probably an excellent strategy, imo. For those who have a riskier approach, buying today's weakness with a stop a few points below today's low would be much more aggressive.
$40 to the downside or $160 to the upside. With the upside so much greater, imo, wisdom would suggest that there is no reason to buy until there is a clear reversal of the downtrend. However, if that reversal is because of great earnings, you'll need to own the stock before they report.
JMO
TO |
