As a former daytrader myself, I can appreciate what a gift it was for you to divert 40 minutes of your trading day to do a quicky eval and reach your personal "click or don't click" decision this morning on PGLC.
However, that being said, here's a couple reflections that have come to mind when reading your additional dialog just now.
1) Whenever an unknown quantity picks up the phone and demands a confrontational audience with a poohbah, several psych dynamics are at work. Not the least of which is a game of "Gotcha." Complete with your pre-existing filters.
Never having interacted with you before, I don't know if you are a listener or if you are a "waiting to speak listener"...my clue as to that answer is your telling comment by in your "500m unchallenged error speak" shared freely with all here, and by your own admission, unchallenged by Alfers.
Pray tell what was Alfers s'posta to say to you, a previously unheard of, intrusive intel gatherer with obvious bias aforehand? Correct your obvious error speak? Why, when YOUR DD was lacking simply by NOT conducting a quick "convert-me" glance at meters vs 640Acre railroad square parcels before dialing his number would have put you in a better interrogating position?
2) Is it possible Alfers is better at parsing info within statutory guidelines than you gave him credit for?
Case in point: The 65-70% recovery rate you seem hung up on.
I've run across that stat before, and so have many others who have DD'd this stock. Alfers canNOT give forward guidance under SEC rules, let alone to an unknown interogater in some phone quickie. He can only speak of PRIOR TO HIS MANAGEMENT public information already disclosed. In this case, that miserably low recovery statistic you quote (that he uttered) is what the prior bankrupt outfit miserably established as a historical benchmark as it were. PGLC under Alfers watch is expected to do much better...especially since NV geology is not that "foreign" and a great mystery to any of us in the mining industry. Said another way, can't fault Alfers for his predecessors deficits!
Sounds to me that they had idiots running the mill or the testing lab. Either that or high grading was rampant. Or anything of a dozen alternative scenarios in between those two polarities race through my mind.
2-A) I note with interest you didn't report his context when providing you said historical recovery rates data under SEC guidelines, especially 10 days prior to announcing resource calcs and average grades of cut-off on the recent 2012 drilling program completion.
2-B) Furthermore, not only is this miserable 65-70% recovery statistic historically an already revealed fact by the prior inept mgmt no less, an immediately prior "Relief Canyon" outfit who thought they could get the other 30-35% gold values left behind, screwed up miserably because they focused on re-running tailings from Relief Canyon. Talk about Keystone cops. Or monkeys running the zoo......
3) It is my opinion it's waaaaaaaaaaay to early to talk "costs of recovery" et al, as that's boardroom/Corner office private spec by an experienced CEO and his Geo, most assuredly out of earshot of unknow callers. However, you do get points in surfacing for public review YOUR fears in this forum. Besides, there are "neighbors' statistics" that can ballpark that for you without yanking Alfers' short leash.
Not too sure what you think you accomplished by ambushing a CEO and conducting your shotgun cellphone verbal audit/intel maneuver in the middle of your trading day, but you just may have shot yourself in the foot. No skin off my nose however.
Just thought I'd mention some of the obvious consequences to such this particular public sharing of yours POST shotgun pattern decision making by a TA who got FA from a saavy "triple A" (Alfers)
Peace & G/L in your daytrading! |
