1/18/13 Contest Update
As was the case in 2012, stocks celebrated the New Year by energetically bubbling higher. Although the 2013 early-January biotech bounce was a bit short of the 2012 rally, the Contest median closed Friday up a solid 5.94% since the year’s start, with the Nasdaq Biotech Index up a slightly lower 5.54%. And, despite the big bite Apple took out of the Nasdaq Composite Index, it still managed a YTD gain of 3.82%.
ROBERT’s portfolio, propelled by PPHM’s pyrotechnics, is in the Contest lead with a lofty 21.98% YTD gain. Just a smidgen behind in the No. 2 spot, with a 21.87% YTD gain, is MOPGCW’s portfolio. It got its kick from CYTK & SGMO. Taking third place is the Contest’s perennial top performer, RKRW’s portfolio, with a 19.26% YTD gain.
At Friday's close, 34 of the 39 Contest portfolios were in the black with 21 of the 39 beating the NBI.
Below is the Top Ten list. Also below are the Top 5 & Bottom 5 Stocks ranked by % Gained and % Lost YTD (foreign stock prices are not converted to US$ in these two tables).
My Bonus Note on PRTA (Prothena), the third worst performing stock YTD:
My own portfolio has the dubious distinction of being the sole holder of PRTA, as well as the No. 1 & No. 2 losers, AMF.TO and IDRA (but, amazingly, I’m not in last place). Although I knew the odds were high PRTA would drop the first few weeks of the year, I still picked it and submitted my Contest portfolio before the 12/31/12 deadline. After all, as Contest scorekeeper, I should set a good example.
Here’s why I expected PRTA to fall in early January. PRTA was spun-off by ELN (Elan) in late-December and began trading on 12/27. What often happens is that funds receiving spin-off shares quickly dump them as they’re not considered an appropriate holding. For example, if the parent company is in an Index, has a different focus or is much larger than the spin-off (ELN’s market cap is about $6 billion vs. about $100 million for PRTA), funds owning the parent company will not want to hold on to the spin-off shares. And with many funds selling the spin-off, its stock price naturally drops.
I like PRTA’s prospects and have taken into account its likely price decline in timing my real world purchases of the stock. And I do expect the fund sales of PRTA will soon end and the stock will rebound (it’s now selling about level to cash). Of course, do your own due diligence!
So, there’s my excuse for PRTA, but I haven’t yet come up with excuses for the other losers in my 2013 Contest portfolio. :-(
Portfolio adjustments: None
Enjoy the three-day MLK Birthday weekend biotechies!
(All corrections, especially adjustments for splits, greatly appreciated.)
Peace & good health,
Bulba
1/18/13
Rank Name Profit/Loss
1 ROBERT 21,979
2 MOPGCW 21,865
3 RKRW 19,255
4 FILO 18,186
5 NIGEL 15,807
6 THEOX 13,345
7 PGO 13,325
8 DNAJOE 10,900
9 GHMM 10,542
10 ARTHUR 9,171
Week's Top 5 Gainers
Symbol 12/31/12 1/18/13 Wk.%chg.
TTNP 1.10 1.80 63.64%
PPHM 1.32 2.13 61.36%
CYTK 0.66 1.01 53.03%
SGMO 6.01 9.02 50.08%
NVIV 1.74 2.50 43.68%
Week's Worst 5 Losers
Symbol 12/31/12 1/18/13 Wk.%chg.
IDRA 0.89 0.740 -16.85%
AMF.TO 0.40 0.330 -16.46%
PRTA 7.33 6.140 -16.23%
MAKO 12.85 10.890 -15.25%
CLSN 8.19 7.000 -14.53% |
