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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks
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To: vegetarian who wrote (7745)12/3/1997 2:47:00 PM
From: space cadet  Read Replies (2) of 9285
 
My only long now is sunw. Everything else is puts. My puts have done well on the anonymous stocks that no-one including me have heard of. For example, I've done well with afci, tklc, and levl. On the other hand I've gotten killed on ctxs and yhoo. My conclusion is that these well known high flyers, though absurdly valued, will be the last to fall. I've learned that just as the leaders such as csco and msft are the last to retreat in a sell-off so the famous hi-flyers such as aol and yahoo will be the last to fall. Unfortunately I got into them much too early. No big deal if you're short but deadly if like me you are into puts. Well at least I've learned something.
I also think we are starting to see the beginning of a massive divergence between the hi-techs and the rest of the market. For the past ten years the hi-techs have been essentially hugely overvalued.
After all these aren't stocks you can buy and forget about with a couple of well known exceptions such as msft and intl and csco. Most of the rest are extremely cyclical, boom and bust type stocks, yet their p/e's were closer to coke and gillette than gm and ford. I think investors may be coming to their senses and re-evaluating the techs. Of course, maybe it is just the asia problems, it's hard to distinguish right now. One last tidbit for the bears out there. My brother-in-law, a very successful yuppie who's been invested for the entire 90's has just gotten out 80% into cash. If enough other successful yuppies are doing the same right now then this may be just the start of a real crash. Personally I kind of doubt that this is happening but you never know, and I think the past 2 or 3 months has started to really scare some of the well off set with 6 figures invested in the market.
Still looking for some more obscure hi-p/e stocks to buy puts on...
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