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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: tekgk who wrote (10057)12/3/1997 4:41:00 PM
From: Cynic 2005  Read Replies (2) of 18056
 
tek, I have to take some time out to re-think my strategy. If I followed my own advice and took some money off the table in mid Nov, I wouldn't be in this uneasy corner today where my positions are influencing my thinking.
For what it's worth - To me the breadth is a main concern and it is telling me that the rally is not for real. Sure indexes are looking strong but the underlying shift is towards safety. Today NH/NL ratio on NYSE is about 11 to 3. Most of them are in utility, food and muni-fund stocks. Not at all impressive. Breadth on Nasdaq, on the other hand, is real bad. NH/NL is about 10 to 14. If you look at A/D figures it may tell you a similar story. The rally in the last 2 hours seems to have come from some panic short-covering (ala AOL) and some bargain hunting. I am trying to relate VIX to the NH/NL indicator and see what it tells me.
I think your positions, if they are February and out expiration, are in a better shape. If I didn't load-up already, I would have started buying on Monday itself. Today would be another good day to start buying puts as well.
I think the next move down should be pretty steep fall from here. IMHO. We haven't seen any warnings from big-players yet.
BTW, I covered my LRCX and AVNT shorts today and rolled my LRCX puts to January. Closed CAT puts also.
Same here. BWDIK?
-Mohan
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