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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil
TBH 0.825-11.7%Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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To: Weekapaug who wrote (492)12/3/1997 5:51:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy  Read Replies (6) of 22640
 
Ken, you know what that means don't you. It'll go down tomorrow.:)

I found out who BNDS is...Brazil's National Development Bank. I will determine the remaining details of the put sale in the next day or so. I may sell the same puts at 18 to 22.

I sold 100 puts yesterday for 2. The premiums aren't great right now as you pointed out, but I could have bought them back today for around 1. Will probably sell 105's or 110's depending on stock action the next couple of days, but don't want to have too many naked puts laying around. I'm waiting until I can buy the 95's I sold back for a quarter or less...Hopefully tomorrow.

Didn't catch the ex-dividend yet (behind today) but last quarter I thought they paid 1.80.

In terms of short term upside, the question becomes valuation of the 13 companies. Appears that economic concerns are behind us for the most part. The only method I have of determining value is the analyst price targets that range from 144 to 180 plus I believe, although again, there is some feeling that the sales of these companies will generate considerable more cash than originally anticipated. I'm still trying to figure out these periodoc x month reports they release. I had no idea that was coming.

An off the cuff guess is that TBR will be back in the 115 to 130 trading range that I cut my teeth on with this stock heading into next year.

Put in an order today to sell a bunch of AMAT Dec 30p at 7/8...but too late. Maybe I'll get another chance tomorrow. Got zapped on AGPH, but it'll come back. Fortunately I bumped the 55 puts (ouch, stupid, stupid, mistake of the year) I sold out to May. Anything over 39 and I'm back in profit mode if I have to bump them again at that time...the stock is another story. I don't buy stock anymore, and once I unload the CPQ, AGPH, TBR, DIGI it's only options.

Regards,

sf

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