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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Spekulatius who wrote (50741)2/1/2013 11:27:17 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 78464
 
GLW - is yet another example of why "buy only your best ideas, why would you want to invest into your 46th idea" and "hold forever" does not work for me.

GLW was both "one of the best ideas" and "hold forever" position. It is also a large position. And yet I am thinking of selling and moving on. (Of course, the bottom will be exactly when I sell ;)).

Yeah, I know it's a great company with great products and history of innovation and reinventing itself again and again. And it's cheap on P/B basis. But then I look at their results and they suck. And it's not clear that new products will reverse the trend anytime soon. Your concerns (I think it was your concerns) about LG moving to captive production of LCDs and LCD inventory oversupply and margin pressures were all correct. It's hard to replace that with Gorilla glass just because phones are so much smaller than LCDs and so the shipped square footage is so much lower.

IMHO, automotive market is the only possible near term catalyst. If they started selling to auto market, that could be huge.

I was hoping that LCD price drop will lead to huge adoption to the point that almost the whole walls will be LCDs. However, we'd need another huge drop in price for that to occur and we need infra to drive all these displays, which is still costly and underdeveloped (even if you made LCD wall, there's no cheap off-the-shelf solution to drive it).
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