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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.29+0.6%4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (98465)2/2/2013 1:18:41 AM
From: carranza21 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) of 217561
 
Went to a lecture Thursday night by an economic historian who tried to compare 1929 and 2008. He only had 45 minutes so his spiel was necessarily abbreviated and therefore full of gaps. At post-lecture Q&A, I asked what I thought was a good question which he essentially couldn't answer.

The question: "Professor, given the near-parabolic increase in money supply since 2008, why isn't the USD worth substantially less than it presently is?"

If he had read this thread, he'd know that Bart has shown that if economically inactive excess bank reserves are deducted from the base, its growth is not quite as parabolic as it might otherwise seem. But those reserves aren't going to disappear. They'll enter the economy sooner or later, and that will be when gold goes nuts, the USD falters, and inflation begins in earnest. When will this be? Obviously, when the banks think the recovery is sufficiently far along that they will determine that putting the excess reserves to use is more profitable than keeping them inactive. We're getting there.
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