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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change
ATML 8.1400.0%Apr 12 5:00 PM EST
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To: Samuel Lee who wrote (7470)12/3/1997 7:30:00 PM
From: Vikas  Read Replies (2) of 13565
 
As Steve mentioned earlier, many of us have been through this
wild price fluctuation before (we've profited from it as well,
although these downturns are always difficult for the inner linings
of your stomach). When Atmel made a new high during the past 2
years, it moved higher approximately 15% each time (from 36 to 42
then back down; from 42 to 49 then back down). Now that it has
fallen to a new low, how low will it go is the question? If it is
15% below the past low of 22, then around 19 (give or take 1/2) is
where it will bottom out. So where do fumdamentals come into play?
Well, Atmel claims that its business has not been affected by any
turmoil in the East and that it is on target for this quarter.
Furthermore, its Book-to-Bill was 1.2 coming into the quarter. And
they expect the French facility to provide a nice boost beginning
in 3q 98. Have the fundamentals changed then? What has changed is
investor psychology...whereas 90 days ago, everything was bright and
rosey, today investors will find reasons for doubting what the
company can achieve. Of course, with the PE approaching historical
lows while ATML products are receiving good industry acceptance, I
think the stock is probably a good short-term (1-month) and
long-term (9-month) play.

Vikas
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