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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 684.84+0.6%4:00 PM EST

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To: expiredoptions who wrote (45482)2/6/2013 4:54:43 PM
From: ggersh  Read Replies (1) of 220515
 
The probabilities were made up but it's still a good trade...

Example 1 Bullish Trade 1st Support Point (1S) By definition, if the intraday low is the 1st Support Point (896.75), there is a Bullish High Probability Trade in the making. Any trade back above the Pivot (900.00) confirms this bullish trade is on. When the market trades above the Pivot, you initiate a bullish trade. There is now a;

75% Probability of 905.75 the 1R
50% Probability of 913.50 the 2R
25% Probability of 923.75 the 3R
10% Probability of 937.50 the 4R

I recommend taking half your profits at the 1R Point and taking the balance of the trade off at the 2R Point. If the 1R and 2R Points are achieved within the 1st hour of the trade being initiated, there is a high probability for trade up to the 3R and 4R Points later in the day. After initiating this trade, your STOP should be placed below the 1st Support Point. After you begin to take profits your stop should be moved to above your entry level. Example 2 Bearish Trade 1st Resistance Point (1R) By definition, if the intraday high is the 1st Resistance Point (905.80), there is a Bearish High Probability Trade in the making. Any trade back below the Pivot (900.00) confirms this bearish trade is on. When the market trades below the Pivot, you initiate a bearish trade. There is now a;

75% Probability of 896.75 the 1S
50% Probability of 892.25 the 2S
25% Probability of 886.50 the 3S
10% Probability of 878.50 the 4S

I recommend taking half your profits at the 1S Point and taking the balance of the trade off at the 2S Point. If the 1S and 2S Points are achieved within the 1st hour of the trade being initiated, there is a high probability for trade down to the 3S and 4S Points later in the day. After initiating this trade your STOP should be placed above the 1st Resistance Point. After you begin to take profits your stop should be moved below your entry level.
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