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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks
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To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7766)12/3/1997 9:13:00 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (3) of 9285
 
Pancho, RE: ACLY. Listened to the conference call replay 800 839-1382. Interesting call ... as usual, my interpretation is different than the Wainwright analyst!

The reason ACLY had such a "good" quarter ($1.6M is good? with a market cap of $172M?) is that ACLY received a one time "paid up license" from FORD to use their tool. Although there will be consulting work with FORD, it is the license fee that is high margin. Also, ACLY has a substantial tax loss carryforward that is just about used up - so the after tax profit is overstated.

So far there is no evidence of after Y2K business (Mr. Geimer admitted this during Q&A) - so the Company needs to generate unbelievable profits in the next two years to justify their market cap.

There were several hilarious comments from Mr. Geimer during the conference call. As an example, when asked if costs would increase as fast as revenues, Geimer mumbled (and repeated) something about renting more space for $9.50 per foot - as if anyone cares!

For you DDIM fans: check out the quarterly report from ACLY: biz.yahoo.com ACLY provides almost NO useful information.

Maybe thestreet.com article will drive up the price tomorrow - an excellent opportunity to short more.
Regards, Bill
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