Eric, The numbers are nonsensical.
Noticed that Ziff Davis featured this off-the-wall puke. Consider the source. Ziff Davis, publisher of PC Magazine, PC Week and PC Computer, is solidly in the Bill Gates/anti-HDTV camp. Gates is promoting the proposition that 40 million computer users will take advantage of DTV technology and that only a few TV users will want HDTV. His goal is to control the living room as well as the den and office. My guess is that he financed this SRI "research".
Virtually no one in the world has experienced HDTV video and audio quality. How, therefore, is SRI Consulting able to obtain an accurate read on HDTV consumer demand?
One in four American families purchases a TV each year. That's approximately 25 million TVs sold annually in the US. When HDTV advertising and the great media hype take over next year, what percentage of new TV buyers will purchase an analog TV (dead technology standard) versus an HDTV (new technology standard)?
I believe that the vast majority of new TV buyers beginning in mid 1998 will purchase either an HDTV or SDTV versus with very few (at the very low end of the spectrum) choosing NTSC TV. Who would buy a new eight-track player or Beta recorder if they knew that these products would become obsolete within a few years and had the opportunity to purchase the new standard?
Also, the pent-up demand for HDTV appears humongous even though the CE companies have been downplaying the advent of HDTV, fearing the loss of current sales. The dynamics will rapidily change when every CE company in the US is promoting HDTV and SDTV.
Forget SRI's 10-year forcast. It's pure bullshit. In 10 years, we could all be looking at 3-D TV with Smellavision and getting an over-the-wave backrub, too.
My figures:
Year....HDTV.............SDTV.........Converters......Analog
1998....250,000(mostly Z). 250,000....0...............20 miilion
1999....2.5 million......4 million....1 milion........15 million
2000....5 miilion........10 million...4 million.......6 million
2001....7.5 million......12.5 million.2 million....... 2 million
Note: that for every HDTV, SDTV and conveterr capable of receiving Zenith's patentend vertical side-band transmissions, Zenith earns a royalty. |
