I don't see much that's changed since my prior post re the look of things technical.
But, I did note in that post that I didn't think "the issue" for MCP was a technical issue... and, looking all the way back to August, "Standard & Poor’s (S&P’s) on Monday lowered its ratings on Colorado-based rare earths miner and processor Molycorp to ‘CCC+’ from ‘B’ and placed the ratings on CreditWatch with developing implications" suggests that it might be good to better understand the bit about "placed the ratings on CreditWatch with developing implications."
Commodities are getting whacked across the boards, now... making it a pretty useful time to be looking at buying those stocks that have been hammered already, that are succeeding in spite of that, and getting ready to run... needing only a bit of success in the business and a bit of support from the market...
But, that makes me think of buying solid junior gold and silver producers who don't have problems in the project management department, or debt issues...
I just don't see any of that offering a viable catalyst for MCP at this point...
My concern, here, is that there are business issues... and debt will only make them worse.
Looking again, from a purely technical perspective....
For a short term trade... I'd be OK buying the chart at the lows with the "pinch" in the one year weekly chart, like it had in August or November... where it's coming out of a low point in the CCI. Those were pretty weak patterns, still, but they traded pretty reliably... which suggests there's still a bit of excess in the optimism, here, that you'd tend not to find in a stock that's actually at its lows and ready to reverse. But, considering that mostly leaves you noting that, currently, it's still a "reverse" pincher... so, I'd look at the weekly charts and think it was perhaps due for a bound from a nice bottom off of a big red flag in the CCI... but, we're not even in the red on the weekly CCI now... ?
Look at the very trade-able pinch on the one year weekly chart in August and November... and then see what those patterns look like a on a two year weekly chart ? Yeesh. It's a big ass reverse pincher, for now...
My guess is the market isn't dealing with a full deck in considering the debt risks... and, the timing isn't fully developed yet, either, given how truly ugly MOST commodities stocks have been, recently... so, you have a stock with a VERY negative story, in a hugely negative market in REE, that's being wrapped up now in a market trend in all commodities... that has people running away...
Naturally, that SHOULD have you thinking about shopping while things are on sale... but, maybe the black friday sales in November... aren't the "deal" you want, if the same thing will be cheaper after Christmas ?
So, I think you need to wait for something that looks like a bottom on MCP... that isn't accelerated with a downside bias...
Timing issues ? The chart says... wait and see what happens when the %R(14) drops through the price on the 2 year weekly...
Volume tapering off with red in the distribution... says it's getting closer to another "down draft"...
I'll look for "lower"... a bottom paired with a spikey low in %R, confirmed with a low in CCI and money flow... and will expect it will test and probably violate the prior low and my target at $5.75... I don't see any reason to want to pay more than that for it, certainly...
Right now, CMF says "smart money" is getting out fast... while "money flow index" says "lower" will be here soon enough... ?
That's still just looking for a trade...
I'll think about buying a bottom to hold it... when there is a "pincher" and not a "reverse pincher" chart... |
