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To: Staff who wrote (493)	12/4/1997 2:54:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) of 686

When gold gets around $250/oz it will be very near the cost of production, and maybe then people will be a little more enthusiastic about buying some and the price will finally start recovering? One problem with gold is that they keep taking it out of the ground, and very little gets laid back in the ground each year. However, if there are 100,000 tons of it around for banks and such to sell off over the next decade or so, and say about 100m people in the world might be in a position to buy some of the supply...that gives you about 1000 tons per million possible consumers, or maybe about a pound per person. (I dont know what kinds of tons these are etc etc...I just want to get the magnitude sort of right) Anyway, it seems unlikely that if all the world's gold reserves were sold off in the next decade or so, that of the 100 million people who might have totally disposable income each person might buy an ounce or two a year? Or will they? Somebody else do the order of magnitude game in their head too and see if I am way off. Maybe it is plausible to sop all that gold up if it comes back into fashion, I guess I can afford about a pound, not that I know where I'd put it.

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