>>FWIW, if/when LNG is exported from Western Canada, PWE will be a huge beneficiary. This is another reason I continue to build my position.<<
The operators of the LNG terminal (APA, CVX) will capture the biggest chunk of the margin between cheap NA NG (~3$/mcfe) and the asian market (~10$/mcfe) because they own the enabling asset. APA and CVX also have plenty of acreage as well, which they probably feed first into the terminal, which is the whole idea to build it to begin with.
Sure,taking away supply (via export) will benefit other players like PWE too, but all that much, given how plentiful the NG supply is. Besides that, the construction of the Kitimat terminal has just begun and completion is a few years out and not a sure thing to begin with.
I think APA is cheaper on a proved reserve/EV basis (~13$/ BOE, half of which is oil) than PWE and there is no risk if APA going belly up, plus they have the Kitimat option (50%ownership, with CVX as a second partner), midstream assets that can be moved in an MLP, undeveloped resources, landbank, none of which is assigned much value in the current shareprice, imo.
I know that the current operating results are not that pretty to look at, but it is an E&P that has proven itself over time and gown reserves/share over time, which cannot be said about PWE. |
