Yesterday - COT bent - it does not appear to have broken! ............. .................. .................
OK, yesterday, we saw POG act like death & destruction, blood in the streets, dropping -26.20 on COMEX and -40.80 on charts. But alas over all (OA) open interest (OI) dropped a very modest -532 contracts.
So while there was blood in the streets and while some were puking up thier PM shares and others hiding under the desk, it sure looks like the boyz playing the paper gold game were NOT selling en-mass.
A bit of history:
- End of Jan, the 31st, we saw COMEX gold drop -19.30 and COT dropped -6987 of OI!
- Early Jan (4th) we saw Comex POG drop -25.70 and OA OI dropped -5301.
- How about 20-Dec? Comex POG dropped -21.80 and OA Oi shed -7242.
So why didn't OA OI drop by 4-digit numbers yesterday?
Is the trend still in tact?
But let's look at an expanded picture....
Front Month Apr OI dropped -2149 - more in line with what we would expect on a BIG down day in POG. But I also note that volume in Apr contract hit an ATH of 260,413. Remember, when Volume exceeds OI, that means there was a trade for at least every open contract. So did we see +100% turn over in contracts or just frenzied day trading by the algo boys? Something else?
So if OA OI was down only 500-some and the Apr shed -2149, then there must have been some adds somewhere.... Jun OI added +703 to 64,199 and the biggest gain was an add of +1273 in the Feb'14 contract. Interesting. But I note that the trades responsible for the Feb OI bump was in the Open Outcry session. Hmmm.
So let's look at that "action" on the pit floor [yeah they still have a trading pit for Gold]. Usually the volume is greatest on the front month. Yesterday we saw Open Outcry volume at 1024 for Apr, but at 1332 in the Jun and 1245 in the Feb'14.
So what does it all mean? POG crashing but OA OI still in an uptrend? Buying volume on the open outcry floor exceeds the front month volume for two contacts?
eh, hubris, why do you bother us with this COT data anyway? |
