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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

SPY 677.56

-2.0%

Jan 20 4:00 PM EST

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To: j g cordes who wrote (14878)	12/4/1997 4:30:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) of 69904

Jim, WOW ,at first glance that is looks like one scary graph. What it does not take into consideration though is that a lot of money has gone into the bonds. We had a few pre-announcements of bad earnings so far. It indicates the certain sectors of the economy may be stalling. If so lower interest rates may be ahead or at least the expectation/perception of lower interest rates which is just as good in the short term. You mentioned yourself that a drop below 5.9 percent may indicate an overbought condition on the bonds, if so the money may go back into cash and selected stocks. Today's close on the NAZ indicates people are still buying the dips right now so a certain amount of bullishness remains. I believe inflows in to mutual funds are traditionally weak in December/January as people tend to spend too much on the Christmas season. So there will be no help on that front in the short term. The psychology seems very fragile here. My general perception from reading some of the threads is that a lot of people have sufferred some very big loses the last 2 months despite the fact that the DOW had regained most of their losses. Some people may have even been removed from the game as a result of their losses. I personally am quite cautious right now despite the strong look of the DJUA, DJTA, and the DOW30 and will be selling some of my more speculative stocks into any rallies as many of them are still in down trends. It really is a traders market. As a result I am trying to adapt to the new set of rules.

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