Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives

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From: expiredoptions	2/21/2013 3:17:14 PM
	4 Recommendations Read Replies (4) of 218383

Here is something I do to save the majority of our 401k and retirement assets for the last several decades. Below is a long term (16 years) chart of the SPX and the 20 month moving average. Rules: [Step 1] In a Bull Market (SPX at or above the 20mma): As long as the SPX monthly candles "close" at or above the 20mma (20 month moving average), I remain fully invested in the bull market. [Step 2] Preparing for a New Bear Market: While in a bull market, if a SPX monthly candle closes below the 20mma, this is the beginning of a new bear market and I liquidate all stock funds and stock type assets and move everything into a high yield bond type fund. [Step 3] In a Bear Market: As long as the monthly candles close below the 20mma, we remain in protection mode (high yield bond type funds). [Step 4] Preparing for a New Bull Market: When the first monthly candle closes back above the 20mma, this is the beginning of a new bull market and I liquidate most high yield bond type funds and re-invest in stock funds. Then it all starts over again back at Step 1. This has saved us hundreds of thousands of dollars over the last several decades. It only requires a few moves per decade. It has only been wrong once (Sep-2011) in decades! The September 2011 monthly candle closed below the 20mma. We moved out of stock funds into bond type funds. The October 2011 monthly candle closed back above the 20mma. We can only move long term retirement assets once at the end of every quarter, so January 2, 2012 we went back into stock funds. There it is, simple as a rock. It has saved ourselves and families a fortune throughout the decades. Jeff .

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