Re my previous post:
Of course Fy '98 is based on getting the FDA approval for DTaP by the 1st of the year, or one can just interpret them as 12 months following approval.
It is worth waiting for.
If the Drug Industry sports a PEG of 1.66 and the DJ of 1.77 than NVX ought to be able to support a PEG substantially better than it's present .24 ,based on the mean earnings of $1.41, as are projected now by the analysts who follow the stock .
As soon as NVX convinces the market that they can indeed earn $1.41 in '98 and the market becomes convinced that NVX can sustain growth of 75% over the next 5 years the PE could go to 75X and the PEG would be 1.00 . That would put the stock at $105 per share. It surely won't be the first time that a high growth stock has performed like that. The key will be GROWTH. NVX's product pipeline just may be able to sustain it for quite some time.
This is why I believe that to the LONG TERM investor the exact timing of this near FDA APPROVAL isn't so critical. They know that all it does is tighten up the pipeline,i.e. other events will follow the first more closely, DTaP-IPV will end out to be less than a year behind, etc. . A couple of years down the road it won't have made any difference.
The " smart money" won't be selling if FDA approval gets dragged out beyond the end of the year. NVX ( not unlike any developement stage drug company) is about "FDA approval", "it comes with the territory", , it's part of the "risk/reward", etc.
Anxious , yes; impatient, no. :-} |
