Dale, considering the recent market, and QNTM in particular, have
you considered temporarily changing the name of this thread to
"Avoiding 50% Losses in Value Tech Stocks"?
As for AVID, which I mentioned the other day, I'm not going to
jump in on this one, even though it has been beaten down several
points since I mentioned it. Why? I looked at Zack's in the
library and the 5 year growth estimates for AVID are about 25%.
This provides significant downside risk should the PE drop
to 25 after the loss is removed from the trailing, or the company
miss earnings. Still, the next two quarter comparisons should
be really easy for the company to look great on -- hence, anyone
wishing to time any short term movement might have success. I just
look at a PE of 25 with estimated $1.05 for this year and get
only $26.25 as a short term target. The target for end of 98
becomes 25 x $1.52 = $38, which may be an interesting play if
the current drop continues.
In sum, to play AVID short term , you have to believe that
momentum will carry it to a PE in the 35 neighborhood. The
company looks well positioned for long term investments.
jg |
