Reviewing all the TA again, re-reading the TA posts...
What I see in aggregate, is that MCP appears that it is heading toward putting in a bottom "soon", but doesn't appear to be there quite yet.
The lagging indicators are the biggest technical issue...
So, the lagging MACD first ?
On the weekly, it's looking like MACD is slow to roll over into the decline following the other metrics lower... but, there appears to be little reason to doubt that it will... given the reverse pinch on the weekly chart, and everything else working the way it should when the reverse pinch breaks... as it has. On the daily, there is the beginning of a positive pinch forming... but, it's still really early in the evolution, and you should expect to see the decline continue while it forms up. Similar patterns in the last year have taken 3 weeks to a month to develop fully... and, while the current pattern is only a week old, it is also far less dynamic in the slope than prior instances were, so it should take longer to develop... and provide relatively less support in proportion to prior patterns...
The On Balance Volume is also lagging quite badly. The OBV put in a convincing low with the bottom in November, but, now, we're back to testing the price chart lows made back then... while the OBV is still hovering far nearer the highs than the lows...
I'll be convinced MCP is close to making a solid bottom that will be capable of converting today's sellers into tomorrow's buyers when I see the MACD and the OBV solidly confirming what the other metrics are saying now re MCP being headed "lower"... but, other than "lower" I don't have a viable estimate of the share price where that market balance is likely to be found.
On January 25th there was a major tug on the reigns applied trying to slow the decline and turn this pony around... and it wasn't happening, then, even with a 50 million share effort being made. The pace of decline did slow... with a pause that held until mid February... but the lack of any follow through with additional buying providing support, after that event, meant that the pause that was imposed only resulted in creating an eerily similar chart pattern as the daily chart had in Oct 2012... only with a whole lot more volume being required to impose that pattern...
I still don't like MCP fundamentally enough to want to own it in the long term. I think it's a broken company with problematic management that hasn't figured out what's broken, much less figured out how to fix it... while a lot of people appear to still be in denial about anything being amiss, much less broken...
So, who is going to win the market contest ? What's the price point where the genuine pessimists, like me, will look at it and figure... "hey, it's been punished enough to be good for a trade."
I don't have a fundamental answer for that... That's a question about market behavior, not company reality... so, the best answer for that question is what the charts show about market behavior, at the time, in the circumstance that exists...
Trade the chart... ? There's a concept... that I have no problem with. But, that's what brings me full circle to not yet seeing anything like the sort of "no brainer" chart picture that I want to see, that makes me not care so much about how screwed up MCP might be in the long term, in order to trade the big bounce off the bottom in a rally in the short term...
And, from that point of view... what I care about is the aggregate of trading risk apparent in the chart...
When MACD and OBV are at their bottoms... along with other metrics confirming them ? Then, that market risk in the chart has been realized... tipping the scales in favor of making a trade...
For now... I'll wait for the next round of mark downs coming in the ongoing sale in MCP shares...
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