I dont hold much value in the Value Line Index, its not one of my indicators, but I hope it works for you.
If you want to compare apples with apples, I have to say that the Wilshile-5000 is the best indicator to use if you want to lump the entire U.S market as a whole, because that's exactly what it is, ... so here is what I see and what I believe, ... and as you can see, ... its headed for a major test, if it fails, all these funds and indexes will follow.
JMO and good luck with your model, I am not here to convince you in any way, shape or form, but aits always good to read what others are thinking.
Wilshire 5000
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wilshire 5000 price
The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index, or more simply the Wilshire 5000, is a market-capitalization-weighted index of the market value of all stocks actively traded in the United States. Currently, the index contains over 4,100 components. [1] The index is intended to measure the performance of most publicly traded companies headquartered in the United States, with readily available price data, (Bulletin Board/penny stocks and stocks of extremely small companies are excluded). Hence, the index includes a majority of the common stocks and REITs traded primarily through New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, or the American Stock Exchange. Limited partnerships and ADRs are not included. It can be tracked by following the ticker W5000.
History - The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index was established by the Wilshire Associates in 1974, naming it for the approximate number of issues it included at the time. It was renamed the "Dow Jones Wilshire 5000" in April 2004, after Dow Jones & Company assumed responsibility for its calculation and maintenance. On March 31, 2009 the partnership with Dow Jones was concluded and the index returned to Wilshire Associates.
- The base value for the index was 1404.60 points on base date December 31, 1980, [1] when it had a total market capitalization of $1,404.596 billion. On that date, each one-index-point change in the index was equal to $1 billion. However, index divisor adjustments due to corporate actions and index composition changes have changed the relationship over time, so that by 2005 each index point reflected a change of about $1.2 billion in the index’s total market capitalization.
- The index peaked on March 24, 2000 above 14,000 points (record high of the 20th century) and did not surpass that level until February 20, 2007. A hypothetical investment in the Wilshire 5000, made at the 2000 peak and with subsequent dividends reinvested, did not become profitable on a closing basis until October 3, 2006. [2]
- On April 20, 2007, the index closed above 15,000 for the first time. On that day, the S&P 500 was still several percentage points below its March 2000 high, because small cap issues absent from the S&P 500 and included in the Wilshire 5000 outperformed the large cap issues that dominate the S&P 500 during the cyclical bull market. The index reached an all-time high on October 9, 2007 at the 15,806.69 point level, right before the onset of the late-2000s recession and the related late-2000s financial crisis.
- Since late 2007, the expansion of subprime lending difficulties into a wider Financial Crisis, plunged the United States into a renewed bear market that accelerated beginning on September 15, 2008. On October 8, the Wilshire 5000 closed below 10,000 for the first time since 2003. The index continued trading downward towards a 13-year low, reaching the 6,772 level on March 6, 2009, representing a loss of about $10.9 trillion in market capitalization from its highs in 2007.
- The Wilshire 5000 gained approximately $2.5 trillion in market value during the first 11 months of 2009 [3] while the index rose 2,105 points. Therefore, as of November 2009, each index point represented about $1.2 billion in market value.
- The index achieved its highest yearly close on December 31, 2012, a few percent above those of 1999 and 2007, but failed to do so above the 15,000 level (after achieving it intraday) by fewer than 5 points, closing with 14,995.11 points. However, it continued to rise in the short term such that, on February 8, 2013, the index surpassed the 16,000 level for the first time, closing the week at its all-time high of 16,035.04 points. Leading into the State of the Union address on Lincoln's Birthday, February 12, the index pushed to new daily closing (16,053.69) and intraday (16,079.53) highs.
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